Thursday, 18 October, 2018

International Monetary Fund cuts global economic growth target to 3.7%

Finance Minister Asad Umar says decision is taken after consulting leading economists Finance Minister Asad Umar says decision is taken after consulting leading economists
Lloyd Bates | 10 October, 2018, 12:35

So, what you do see is that emerging market economies, which is where India is, there's a very fast buildup in private debt with a slowdown in the last two years, But India is basically steady.

"We are concerned about the downturn in economic growth", noted Jubilee USA Executive Director Eric LeCompte. Not only have some downside risks that the last World Economic Outlook identified been realised, the likelihood of further negative shocks to our growth forecast has risen.

"There are clouds on the horizon", Obstfeld added.

In the report, the International Monetary Fund said economic growth appears to have peaked in some major economies while the gap between advanced countries and emerging markets was widening.

The Donald Trump administration's trade dispute with China is expected to be front and centre, as are the consequences of the Federal Reserve and other major central banks tightening monetary conditions after a decade of easy money.

Further moves towards a trade war could "significantly harm global growth". However, the RBI pegged India's growth projections at 7.5 per cent.

The IMF, in the WEO report, said inflation pressures in sub-Saharan Africa had broadly softened, with annual inflation projected to drop to 8.6 per cent in 2018 and 8.5 per cent in 2019, from 11 per cent in 2017.

The IMF's cut to its outlook was broad-based.

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Pakistan's previous government had set a growth rate target of 6.2 percent for the current fiscal year but global and local institutions predict that the country will not be able to achieve this. -China tariff war's impact to be felt next year, the fund cut its 2019 USA growth forecast to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent, while it cut China's 2019 growth forecast to 6.2 percent from 6.4 percent.

"The forecast does not incorporate the impact of further tariffs on Chinese and other imports threatened by the United States, but not yet implemented, due to uncertainty about their exact magnitude, timing, and potential retaliatory response", according to the International Monetary Fund.

He contended that China had "already retaliated" against his tariff increases.

"The IMF now expects South Africa's economy to expand 0.8 per cent, down from a forecast of 1.5 per cent in July". Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.3 percent to 26,289.24.

The Nikkei closed down 1.32 per cent this morning at 23,469.39.

Several emerging markets had their forecasts cut, including Argentina, Brazil, Iran and Turkey, reflecting factors including tighter credit.

Emerging Asia continued to register strong growth, supported by a domestic demand-led pickup in the Indian economy from a four-year-low pace of expansion in 2017, even as activity in China moderated in the second quarter in response to regulatory tightening of the property sector and non-bank financial intermediation, it said.

United Kingdom growth has been drastically cut in the aftermath of the Brexit vote; uncertainties surrounding the country's divorce from the European Union have stymied investment and seen part of its key financial sector relocate to the continent.

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