Monday, 12 November, 2018

Midterms Speed Read: All You Need to Know About Tuesday's Vote

Some 250,000 jobs were created last month beating expectations Some 250,000 jobs were created last month beating expectations
Leonard Rios | 08 November, 2018, 12:39

State Democrats raised mammoth sums of cash, buoyed by Gov. Roy Cooper's call to "Break the Majority" of the GOP in both the House and Senate this decade. As 2016 showed us, though, taking strong odds and reading them as guarantees can make you look awfully dumb.

This is the most likely outcome, based not just on the polls but also on conversations with strategists in both parties.

Democrats in Congress were poised to make gains in the House, seeking to flip 23 seats to regain control of the chamber and serve as a check on Trump's policies. That's unlikely, by all accounts, because the map is so friendly for the GOP.

Republicans are expected to retain their slight majority in the US Senate, now at two seats, which would let them retain the power to approve US Supreme Court and other judicial nominations on straight party-line votes.

That's a sentiment that leaves Rachel Sklar, a Canadian expatriate lawyer and author living in Manhattan who dedicates her time to advancing feminist political causes, with a sick feeling in her stomach - a sensation that much like the one she felt as the results of the presidential election were trickling in two years ago.

Democrats feel they need to limit the losses in the Senate. This would seem likely even in a neutral environment, and history shows that these "toss-up" races tend to go strongly in the direction of the party with the electoral momentum.

But the GOP solidified their Senate majority after an acerbic midterm election that enshrined America's deep divides and shaped a highly contentious battleground for the stirring 2020 presidential race.

Trump's rallies have focused mostly on Senate and gubernatorial battles in states he won in the 2016 White House race - from Florida and Missouri to West Virginia and Ohio.

Mr Trump's Republican coalition is increasingly becoming older, whiter, more male and less likely to have a college degree.

The divisive former reality star has stated the importance of this vote, but this week began preparing voters for the possibility of losing the House, saying it "could happen", but he would "figure it out". And a status-quo election would actually set up Democrats very well to take over the chamber when they have much better opportunities in 2020 and 2022. Democratic enthusiasm has been high since the day after the 2016 election and remains strong headed into Election Day, putting seats once assumed to be safe into play in the final days.

He has a clear strategy: drive Republican turnout by painting a dark, apocalyptic vision of life in America under Democrats, while fanning fears over illegal immigration. The widely respected Cook Political Report said Monday, "Democrats are substantial favorites for House control and could pick up anywhere from 20 to 40 seats".

That environment still might not be good enough to deliver the Senate, though. If they can hold Republicans to net even, keeping the Senate at 51-49, or maybe lose a net of one seat, then they will be very happy. Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, in North Dakota.

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Polls open across ME with high turnout predicted
Early voting season ended Saturday in West Virginia, with Northern Panhandle counties posting strong turnout numbers. Keep in mind, if there's a large turnout, voters might be required to wait before casting their ballots.

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Steyer insisted most Democrats agree.

Democrats to win big in key governors' races.

Trump's policies, he said, were making a difference for him: He said his manager at an aluminum electrical wire factory had credited Trump tariffs with raising their profits.

Democrats would move forward on legislative priorities that have gotten little traction since Republicans gained control of Congress, such as health care and protecting Dreamer immigrants. Under GOP control, the Senate is expected to resume its efforts to reshape the federal judiciary by filling hundreds of lifetime positions with young conservatives, something the House has no say in. And it wouldn't be wrong.

More reaction is sure to come from Trump as he is scheduled to hold a news conference at 11:30 a.m. ET in the East Room of the White House. FiveThirtyEight has them at a 1-in-8 shot.

Still, his xenophobic rhetoric has been unprecedented for an American president in the modern era: "Barbed wire used properly can be a handsome sight", Trump told voters in Montana. If that popularity does translate into red votes for Blackburn, she could easily win this state come Tuesday.

"They've been able to localize the race, not take on Donald Trump, not take on you know - well, not take on Donald Trump, frankly", Schrader said about the candidates the PAC has endorsed. In an interview with The Associated Press last month, Trump said he would not accept blame for a GOP defeat at the polls.

But the new Democratic House will pose a perilous problem for the President, who must now brace for the novel experience of oversight from Capitol Hill with Democratic committee chairs promising constraints on his power that the GOP never attempted.

The first national elections since Trump captured the White House in 2016 will be a referendum on the polarising Republican president and his hardline policies, and a test of whether Democrats can turn the energy of the liberal anti-Trump resistance into victories at the ballot box. Democrat Beto O'Rourke is campaigning hard to beat Senator Ted Cruz in the historically red state of Texas.

A lot would have to happen, especially in the Senate, for this to happen. It's really hard to rule anything out, given we're in uncharted territory here, and that all of our previous assumptions about how these things work have been called into question.

What it would mean: The same as above - chaos - except less specifically partisan.

"It is not an understatement that I was devastated that on average, the country I love continues to view women as second-class citizens", Rennison said in an email as she described her transformation into a political activist - donating to Democrats, canvassing for candidates and encouraging women to run for office.

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