Tuesday, 22 January, 2019

Oil prices rise on trade talk optimism, OPEC cuts

Goldman cuts 2019 crude price view; sees recovery from current levels Crude Oil Price Likely to Push Higher on US - China Trade Hopes
Lloyd Bates | 09 January, 2019, 11:27

The oil producers' cartel and its allies, including Russian Federation, promised to cut production by 1.2m barrels per day.

Brent for March settlement gained $1.32 to $58.65 on the ICE Futures Europe Exchange in London.

With drilling activity still high, most analysts expect U.S. oil production to rise further this year.

International Brent crude futures were at $57.42 per barrel at 0742 GMT, up 9 cents, or 0.2 per cent from their last close.

West Texas Intermediate for February delivery traded up $1.26 to settle at $49.78 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest close since December 17.

Oil has gained almost 12 percent since last Monday in its biggest week-on-week rally in two years. The U.S. administration on January 7 expressed optimism it can reach a "reasonable" trade deal, and Trump has given Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer until March 1 to negotiate an accord.

Opec and sovereign producer allies outside the exporters' group led by Russian Federation agreed in December to cut production to the tune of 1.2 million barrels per day starting January for a period of six months.

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Oil rallied for a seventh day as USA negotiators touted progress in trade talks with China and investors gained faith that OPEC will shrink output. Oil refiners in the world's top crude-importing region are racing against the clock to restart and ramp-up purchases from Iran before U.S. President Donald Trump has a chance to change his mind.

Under the ongoing Opec+ agreement, Saudi Arabia has agreed to cut its oil supply by 3%.

Because of record US crude oil production C-OUT-T-EIA of 11.7 million bpd, American fuel stockpiles are rising, according to weekly data by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

More upbeat equity markets also offered support on the back of expectations that trade talks set for this week between the United States and China will ease a trade dispute.

Societe Generale cut its 2019 oil price forecast for Brent by $9 to $64 a barrel and reduced its forecast for US light crude by $9 to $57 a barrel. -China trade tensions. The company's shares dropped 10 percent after the disclosure.

The market has anticipated that talks between Chinese officials and the US trade representatives that began on Monday would yield positive results, as smooth global trade would help encourage oil demand.

Goldman Sachs said in a note it had downgraded its average Brent crude oil forecast for 2019 to $62.50 a barrel from $70 due to "the strongest macro headwinds since 2015". Societe Generale cut its 2019 oil price forecast for Brent by $9 to $64 a barrel and reduced its forecast for U.S. light crude by $9 to $57 a barrel.

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